Industrial remains the most institutionally-pursued asset class in DFW, and the I-35W / Alliance corridor in north Fort Worth continues to anchor that demand. Here's what investors should be watching heading into 2026.
Where cap rates stand
National single-tenant industrial asking cap rates averaged 7.15% in Q1 2026 (Boulder Group). DFW Class A bulk distribution in the Alliance corridor has generally been pricing inside the national average given investor preference for the market, with shallow-bay and flex widening above it depending on tenant credit and remaining lease term. The spread to comparable coastal industrial continues to draw out-of-state capital.
Buyers are underwriting modest cap-rate expansion on exit while leaning harder on rent-growth assumptions and mark-to-market opportunities at rollover, rather than pure yield compression.
Absorption and supply
Per Matthews' Q4 2025 DFW Industrial Report, 2025 leasing volume tracked toward roughly 70 million SF, with vacancy stabilizing around 9.1% — supported by a Q4 rebound in tenant activity after the 2024 election-related slowdown. Cushman & Wakefield's Q1 2025 Marketbeat reported 6.5M SF of YTD net absorption with overall vacancy at 9.7%.
Deliveries are coming down from the 2022–2023 peak (Partners Real Estate Q4 2025 noted 6.7M SF delivered in Q4 alone, but the gap between net absorption and completions is narrowing). Alliance vacancy remains elevated versus the cycle low but inside the range most underwriters consider healthy for a submarket of its scale.
Rent growth and tenant demand
Overall DFW industrial asking rents averaged $8.61 PSF NNN in Q1 2025 (Cushman & Wakefield), with new Class A bulk in north Fort Worth typically clearing above that average and concessions normalizing to several months of free rent on long-term deals. Shallow-bay and last-mile product continues to outperform on a percentage basis as e-commerce and same-day logistics tenants compete for proximity to rooftops.
Tenant demand remains diversified — third-party logistics, e-commerce fulfillment, building products, and advanced manufacturing tied to DFW's reshoring story.
What we're advising investors
Two strategies are working right now: core-plus acquisitions of well-located Class A bulk at a slight premium to recent comps, and value-add plays in shallow-bay product where in-place rents are 15–25% below market. Both lean on Fort Worth's growth story rather than betting on cap rate compression.
If you're considering a 1031 exchange into Fort Worth industrial, the 45-day identification window is tight in this market — most viable replacement properties trade off-market. Start identifying targets well before your relinquished property closes.